Binary contracts on things that may or may not happen in the simulation — where an index closes, whether the central bank cuts, whether a company beats, how an election goes. Prices are probabilities and update on Bayesian rules as evidence accumulates, so a contract at 0.20 pays five times if it comes in, which is what makes a low-confidence call worth more than a safe one.

Four categories: market, economy, company and political. Every question resolves against something the engine actually determines rather than against an outside feed.